Back‑to‑school spending in U.S. likely to drop amid economic uncertainty and tariffs

U.S. Back to School Spending Slumps Amid Tariff Pressures and Economic Worries
As the 2025 26 school year approaches, American families are feeling the pinch. A mix of economic uncertainty, elevated household costs, and a fresh wave of import tariffs is dampening what is traditionally one of the most active shopping seasons in the U.S. Retailers are seeing early signs of reduced back to school spending, with many families tightening their belts and prioritizing only essentials.

This year's back to school season is shaping up not only as a test of household resilience, but also as a reflection of how deeply trade policy and inflation are now embedded in everyday financial decisions. The combined pressures of tariff driven price hikes, stagnant wage growth for many families, and a cautious consumer mindset are creating a back to school environment defined more by thrift than trend.

A Different Kind of Shopping Season
Historically, back to school shopping is second only to the holiday season in retail revenue, typically driving billions in sales across sectors apparel, electronics, stationery, footwear, and more. But this year, early consumer data indicates that average household spending is expected to decline for the first time in four years.

Parents are reporting scaled back plans fewer clothing items, less interest in high end electronics, and a shift toward bargain brands. Even backpack sales once considered recession resistant are flattening.

One mother of two from Minneapolis, Sarah Grant, explained “We used to spend freely during this time, but this year I’m avoiding extras. No new lunch boxes or headphones unless it’s absolutely necessary.”

Tariffs Trigger Price Spikes
A major factor behind the pullback is the recent imposition of new import tariffs, especially on goods from countries like China, Vietnam, and Canada. President Trump’s revived tariff regime, including a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports, has already impacted wholesale prices for a wide range of products, including school staples like notebooks, clothing, and even paper goods.

Retailers are responding by passing some of those costs directly to consumers. While certain chain stores have attempted to absorb small increases to remain competitive, smaller suppliers and online vendors have adjusted prices upward particularly in the electronics and apparel categories.

For many households, this has turned even minor purchases into budget decisions. Laptops and tablets, often considered back to school essentials for middle and high school students, are now priced 10 15% higher on average compared to last summer.

Families Prioritize Essentials Over Extras
Parents across income levels are making difficult trade offs. Instead of buying updated wardrobe pieces or trend driven accessories, most are sticking to school supplies, replacing only worn out or outgrown items. There’s also a noticeable uptick in resale platform usage, with sites like Facebook Marketplace and OfferUp seeing spikes in listings for gently used school gear.

A recent family survey in Ohio revealed that 48% of parents plan to reuse last year’s supplies, while 30% said they would delay purchases until mid semester in hopes of finding markdowns.

In addition, school districts in lower income areas are reporting higher than usual requests for supply subsidies or inclusion in donation programs. Non profits and religious organizations are also stepping in with free supply drives to help families meet basic academic needs.

Retailers Pivot to Value Driven Messaging
Sensing the shift, big box retailers are pivoting their marketing strategies. Instead of promoting product variety or flashiness, they are emphasizing affordability, durability, and multipurpose use.

Target has launched a “Stretch Your Dollar Further” campaign, while Walmart is focusing on bundled deals and lower priced private labels. Amazon is promoting staggered sales events through late July and August, designed to meet the growing demand for phased purchasing rather than one time bulk buys.

Despite efforts to stimulate sales, many retailers acknowledge that even deep discounts may not offset the cautious consumer climate. A national retail executive commented anonymously “This year’s back to school sales will likely reflect a shift from ‘how much can I buy?’ to ‘what do I absolutely need?’”

Economic Anxiety Fuels Conservative Spending
Beyond tariffs, the larger macroeconomic picture is driving the current restraint. Though unemployment remains low and core inflation is cooling slightly, consumer sentiment is still shaky. Rising housing costs, elevated food prices, and uncertainty about future interest rates have made many families wary of discretionary spending.

Moreover, student loan payments resumed in late 2024, placing further financial strain on middle class parents who are still repaying their own education debt while now footing the bill for their children's school needs.

The ripple effect is visible across multiple sectors. School bus services are reporting fewer early registrations, extracurricular activity vendors are seeing enrollment drops, and tutoring centers are adjusting packages to attract more cost conscious customers.

Technology Takes a Hit, Despite Its Growing Necessity
Perhaps the most surprising casualty of the spending slowdown is the technology segment. Laptops, tablets, headphones, and Wi Fi equipment once must haves in the era of hybrid learning are experiencing flat or declining sales.

Families are increasingly choosing to delay tech upgrades unless absolutely necessary. Many are exploring school provided loaner programs, second hand options, or extended warranty renewals to stretch the usability of devices by another academic year.

Some school districts have already expressed concern, noting that digital equity gaps could widen again if families are unable to afford updated tech for their children.

Looking Ahead Stretching Smarter, Spending Less
With the new school year just weeks away, it’s clear that back to school shopping in 2025 reflects broader economic and social dynamics. While the season will still generate substantial retail activity, the tone is one of frugality, flexibility, and financial discipline.

Parents are planning smarter, spending more strategically, and relying on community resources when needed. Meanwhile, businesses are learning to adapt to a more price sensitive consumer base one that’s less interested in excess and more focused on essentials.

In short, the school supply aisle may still be full but the baskets are looking a little lighter this year.